<ul><li>APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the risk-off mood stateside, where sentiment was weighed on by weak US labour market proxies and AI concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Chinese trade data.</li>
	<li>US President Trump said they will need a game plan if the Supreme Court case on tariffs does not go well, and can do other things, but they are slow in comparison.</li>
	<li>US President Trump added there are no new tariff announcements coming while the SCOTUS case is pending.</li>
	<li>US is to block NVIDIA's (NVDA) sale of scaled-back AI chips to China, according to The Information.</li>
	<li>European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.0% on Thursday.</li>
	<li>Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Data, Canadian Jobs, NY Fed SCE, US University of Michigan Prelim, Speakers including Fed’s Williams, Jefferson and Miran, BoE’s Pill, ECB’s Elderson &amp; Nagel, Earnings from Daimler Truck.</li>
</ul><h2>SNAPSHOT</h2>

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<h2>US TRADE</h2>

<h3>EQUITIES</h3>

<ul><li>US stocks declined in a risk-off day amid AI concerns and soft labour market proxies. On AI, NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang warned that China could win the AI race vs the US, while the OpenAI CFO spoke on a government backstop for its USD 1tln expansion; however, this was later walked back and CEO Altman also clarified that they do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI data centres. On the labour market proxies, Challenger layoffs surged to a 7-month high, and RevelioLabs' estimate of nonfarm payrolls declined by 9k in October, while the Chicago Fed estimate of the unemployment rate also ticked up slightly.</li>
	<li>SPX -1.12% at 6,720, NDX -1.91% at 25,130, DJI -0.84% at 46,914, RUT -1.88% at 2,417.</li>
	<li><a href="https://newsquawk.com/headlines/newsquawk-us-market-wrap-risk-off-trade-on-soft-job-proxies-while-ai-concerns-mount-06-11-2025" target="_blank">Click here for a detailed summary.</a></li>
</ul>TARIFFS/TRADE

<ul><li>US President Trump said they will need a game plan if the Supreme Court case on tariffs does not go well, and can do other things, but they are slow in comparison, while he added there are no new tariff announcements coming while the SCOTUS case is pending.</li>
	<li>US President Trump said talks with India are going well, while they will figure out a trip to India and that he will be going.</li>
	<li>US President Trump posts that he's thrilled to announce an incredible trade and economic deal between the US and Uzbekistan in which the latter will be purchasing and investing almost USD 35bln over the next three years, and more than USD 100bln in the next 10 years in key American sectors, including critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy &amp; chemicals, information technology, and others.</li>
	<li>US is to block NVIDIA's (NVDA) sale of scaled-back AI chips to China, according to The Information.</li>
	<li>Discrepancies emerged over the details of China's agreement with the US to pause rare-earth export restrictions, as Washington said past controls will also be eliminated, a condition that has not been announced by Beijing, according to Nikkei.</li>
	<li>Dutch Economy Minister trusts that the supply of chips from China will reach Nexperia's customers over the coming days.</li>
</ul>NOTABLE HEADLINES

<ul><li>Fed's Barr (voter) said progress has been made on inflation, but there is still more work to do, while he noted a two-speed economy with wealthier households thriving and said the Fed has to pay attention to ensuring the job market is solid.</li>
	<li>Fed's Miran (voter) expects the Fed will cut in December and reiterated that he wants to get to neutral in 50bps moves, but a lot of his colleagues want 25bps. Miran added that they do not need 75bps cuts and do not need to make up for lost ground on cuts, while he also stated that the labour market deterioration is gradual and not accelerating.</li>
	<li>Fed's Musalem (2025 voter) said the economy has been resilient in the face of uncertainty and the job market has softened of late, but has been around full employment. Musalem expects the economy to pick up next year after a soft fourth quarter, while he also commented that the Fed’s two mandates are somewhat in tension and that monetary policy is between modestly restrictive and neutral.</li>
	<li>Fed's Hammack (2026 voter, hawk) said it is 'not obvious' the Fed should cut interest rates again given inflation and that Fed policy should stay modestly restrictive to lower inflation, with monetary policy 'only barely restrictive, if at all'. Hammack said the Fed is seeing pressure on both sides of its employment and inflation mandates, while she expects elevated inflation through 2026. and noted it will take a couple of years to get back to 2% inflation target, and that the Fed's bigger miss is on the inflation side relative to the jobs mandate. She also stated that inflation overshoot goes beyond tariff pressure and she is 'a little but nervous' about current policy given inflation, as well as stated that she would not want to cut rates into accommodative territory. Furthermore, Hammack said she does not believe current economic data warrants an interest rate hike, and keeping Fed policy restrictive will help bring inflation down, as well as noted that contacts suggest job market remains in a low-hiring, low-firing environment.</li>
	<li>US President Trump's administration moved to appeal the judgement requiring full SNAP benefits to be paid by Friday.</li>
	<li>US President Trump's administration finalised flight cuts to start at 4% on Friday and will ramp up to 10% on November 14th.</li>
	<li>US Vice President Vance said Americans are about to start suffering some very real consequences because of the government shutdown.</li>
	<li>US Justice Department is said to be investigating the DC mayor over a foreign trip, according to The New York Times.</li>
</ul><h2>APAC TRADE</h2>

<h3>EQUITIES</h3>

<ul><li>APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the risk-off mood stateside, where sentiment was weighed on by weak US labour market proxies and AI concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Chinese trade data.</li>
	<li>ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in tech and the top-weighted financial industry, with the latter pressured as Macquarie shares retreated on earnings disappointment.</li>
	<li>Nikkei 225 briefly fell beneath the 50,000 level after recent tech woes, currency strength and disappointing Household Spending data.</li>
	<li>Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in the largest weekly drain since early 2024 and as participants awaited Chinese trade data which ultimately showed a surprise contraction in exports, while it was also reported that the US is to block NVIDIA's sale of scaled-back AI chips to China.</li>
	<li>US equity futures were rangebound and got some mild respite from the prior day's selling pressure.</li>
	<li>European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.0% on Thursday.</li>
</ul><h3>FX</h3>

<ul><li>DXY nursed some of the prior day's losses, but remained beneath the 100.00 level with the rebound limited after it suffered from a trifecta of weak labour market proxies, and with potential trade-related headwinds after a report that the US is to block NVIDIA's sale of scaled-back AI chips to China. There were also several comments from Fed speakers, including Miran who expects the Fed will cut in December and reiterated that he wants to get to neutral in 50bps moves, while Fed's Hammack said it is 'not obvious' that the Fed should cut interest rates again given inflation.</li>
	<li>EUR/USD held on to most of its recent spoils at the 1.1500 handle after having benefitted from the dollar's demise, while ECB de Guindos recently noted slight optimism on growth and stated that inflation news is positive.</li>
	<li>GBP/USD marginally pulled back after climbing yesterday on the weaker buck and despite the BoE's dovish hold, while it was also reported that UK Chancellor Reeves told the Budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances.</li>
	<li>USD/JPY trades indecisively around the 153.00 level amid haven demand and disappointing Household Spending data.</li>
	<li>Antipodeans were contained amid the downbeat risk sentiment and disappointing Chinese trade data.</li>
	<li>PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0836 vs exp. 7.1131 (Prev. 7.0865)</li>
	<li>Banxico cut rates by 25bps to 7.25%, which was in line with expectations, while the decision was made by a 4-1 vote split as Heath voted to keep rates at 7.50%. Banxico stated that the Governing Board deemed it appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle. Looking ahead, the Board will evaluate reducing the reference rate (prev. Looking ahead, the Board will assess further adjustments to the reference rate).</li>
</ul><h3>FIXED INCOME</h3>

<ul><li>10yr UST futures took a breather after climbing yesterday alongside dismal labour market proxies and risk-off trade.</li>
	<li>Bund futures were subdued following this week's choppy performance and as German trade data looms.</li>
	<li>10yr JGB futures gave back opening gains and returned to flat territory despite disappointing Japanese Household Spending data.</li>
</ul><h3>COMMODITIES</h3>

<ul><li>Crude futures nursed some losses after the prior day's fluctuations amid the downbeat risk tone and with a lack of pertinent catalysts.</li>
	<li>Spot gold gradually recouped some lost ground and briefly returned to the USD 4,000/oz territory.</li>
	<li>Copper futures were contained alongside the downbeat risk environment, but ultimately shrugged off weak Chinese trade data.</li>
</ul><h3>CRYPTO</h3>

<ul><li>Bitcoin mildly rebounded in choppy trade and rose back above the USD 102k level.</li>
</ul>NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

<ul><li>PBoC injected CNY 141.7bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 1.40%, while its operations resulted in a weekly net drain of CNY 1.57tln which is the largest fund withdrawal since January 2024.</li>
</ul>DATA RECAP

<ul><li>Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Oct) 90.07B vs. Exp. 95.6B (Prev. 90.45B)</li>
	<li>Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Oct) -1.1% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 8.3%)</li>
	<li>Chinese Imports YY (USD)(Oct) 1.0% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 7.4%)</li>
	<li>Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Oct) 640.49B (Prev. 645.47B)</li>
	<li>Chinese Exports (CNY)(Oct) -0.8% (Prev. 8.4%)</li>
	<li>Chinese Imports (CNY)(Oct) 1.4% (Prev. 7.5%)</li>
	<li>Japanese All Household Spending MM (Sep) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%)</li>
	<li>Japanese All Household Spending YY (Sep) 1.8% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.3%)</li>
</ul><h2>GEOPOLITICS</h2>

MIDDLE EAST

<ul><li>US President Trump said Iran has been asking if US sanctions can be lifted, while he responded 'very soon', when asked when the international stability force for Gaza will be on the ground.</li>
	<li>US President Trump said he held a great call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and Kazakhstan's President Tokayev, while Trump noted that Kazakhstan is the first country of his second term to join the Abraham Accords and the first of many, with more nations lining up to embrace peace and prosperity through my Abraham Accords.</li>
</ul>RUSSIA-UKRAINE

<ul><li>Ukrainian ambassador said her country is engaged in “positive” talks about buying Tomahawk missiles and other long-range weapons</li>
	<li>US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump has been clear that the war must end immediately and that as long as Russian President Putin continues the senseless killings, the Kremlin puppet, Gunvor, will never get a license to operate and profit.</li>
</ul>OTHER

<ul><li>US Senate voted 51-49 to block a measure barring US President Trump from launching war on Venezuela.</li>
	<li>Japan's government said North Korea fired what could be a ballistic missile which fell shortly after, while Japanese PM Takaichi said North Korea's missile likely fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone.</li>
</ul><h2>EU/UK</h2>

NOTABLE HEADLINES

<ul><li>UK Chancellor Reeves has told the Budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances, according to The Times. Reeves is considering a 2p rise in income tax and a 2p cut in national insurance in an attempt to shift the burden of tax rises away from workers and on to other groups such as pensioners and landlords, while she is considering limiting the national insurance cut to earnings below GBP 50,270, reducing the rate from 8% to 6%. Furthermore, earnings over GBP 50,270 would still be subject to a 2% rate to ensure that those with the “broadest shoulders” bear the biggest burden.</li>
	<li>UK Chancellor Reeves considers a less dramatic cut to the UK's annual cash ISA allowance, while the government is also encouraging ISA providers to revamp their stocks-and-shares savings products, according to FT.</li>
</ul>

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the risk-off mood stateside, where sentiment was weighed on by weak US labour market proxies and AI concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Chinese trade data.

European equity futures uneventful, Reeves considering a 2p rise in income tax; US to block Nvidia's scaled back chip to China - Newsquawk European Opening News

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